Saturday 24th July

The time is 18 minutes to midnight on Saturday 24th July.

This week at Prime Minister's Questions, Nick Clegg made a reference to the legality of the Iraq war.  This article will explain why it has moved the clock towards midnight by 30 seconds.  The Speaker of the House is now considering this to be Government policy.

David Davis referred to the coalition yesterday as a "Brokeback Coalition."  Davis is amongst senior Conservatives who once resigned his seat to fight for it on civil liberties.  It would be assumed on this basis that Davis may favour the coalition somewhat.  However, he is otherwise a social conservative and an economic Thatcherite, which may explain some distaste for the coalition.  The fact that there are many in the Conservative right that hold this distaste, and it was a statement overheard by somebody in a pub - and the press are looking for any distaste for the coalition - this has only moved the clock by 30 seconds.  In addition, Jerry Hayes (an ex Tory MP) puts why this will not necessarily affect the coalition in a very comical manner on his blog at ThinkPolitics.

Moving on, the Liberal Democrat MP Tim Farron made several statements in public insinuating that the 'Cameron brand' was 'toxic', alongside many Tory MPs being toxic.  He stated that the Conservatives were using their party to 'detoxify' their brand.  Farron suggested that the Conservative Party has not changed.  Having listened to the entire interview - alongside the fact that these are blatant public remarks - this has moved the clock towards midnight by 1 minute.  The remarks will upset some in the Parliamentary Conservative Party and would suggest that there are some in the Liberal Democrats who are angered by Nick Clegg's decision or what they view - rightly or wrongly - to surrender on policy.  To clarify as to why this has moved the clock by one minute whilst Davis' remarks by 30 seconds, we have to bear in mind that many MPs will make these remarks in private or in a bar - as the Spectator article suggests.  Tim Farron made the remarks in a public manner to either send a warning to his grassroots or to his Party.

Opinion polls have not been taken into account as there are no significant changes or elections coming up.  When reference to the opinion polls are made by senior members of either party, these will be taken into account.