Wednesday 30th June

The time is 20 minutes to midnight on Wednesday 30th June.

The way this time has been calculated is based on a number of factors.  This includes the VAT rise which would have rumbled some left-wing Liberal Democrats.  The reason it is not at 19 to midnight is that the two rebels - namely Mike Hancock and Bob Russell - are backbench MPs in the coalition.  We also anticipate that these individuals campaigned personally against a VAT rise and so are accountable to their constituents.  Nonetheless, as there was not complete compliance it has affected the clock by half a minute.

There has also been unrest within the grassroots of both parties, alongside statements being made by James Forsyth, seen here.  Whilst we disagree with their relevance somewhat, it suggests that those with influence are piling on the pressure on David Cameron to become more right-wing.  This has affected the clock by a further half a minute, as there are many more sites sourcing this - including Conservative Home.

Today, we have noticed that the Liberal Democrats have received a concession on their prison policy.  This has affected the clock positively by one minute, as it will be calming some Liberal Democrats who were being affected by Labour's attacks on them 'selling out'.

Therefore, the clock is at its default position as the three above points have cancelled the others out.

We have deliberately not included any opinion polls as we do not believe that their loaded questions are of relevance.

Welcome to the Coalition Doomsday Clock

The coalition parties are currently married into Government.  Labour are attempting to rock the boat of the coalition by predominantly attacking the Liberal Democrats in the hope that they will bring down the coalition.

We realise that this might be a potential problem.  We also realise that - from time to time - there will be disagreements in policy despite the Programme for Government.

We therefore decided that a standing 'state of the coalition' would be a good idea to implement.  After much deciding with regards to what would be the best way, we thought that a quick-to-read style in a busy culture such as Britain would be a "Minutes to Midnight" style - in the form of the nuclear war Doomsday Clock famous during the Cold War era.

By using non-scaremongering newspapers, opinion polls (that are judged over a week), grassroots 'feeling', (hopefully) insider Westminster knowledge and reputable blog posts, we will judge the minutes to midnight.

The clock will never be at a time before 20 to midnight.  This is because of the nature of this coalition - it is unstable by its very nature because this is a relatively new thing in politics.

Being the first post, this serves as more of an introduction to the concept.  We hope that you find it informative and it serves its purpose well.