Friday 16th July

The time is 20 minutes to midnight on Friday 16th July.

Noises emanating from the Conservative backbenchers over the date of the referendum on alternative vote has shifted the clock towards midnight by 30 seconds.  This small movement is due to the fact that this referendum has yet to be voted on, and voting on it will be subject to a three line whip.

The tiny Liberal Democrat rebellion over VAT has not impacted negatively on the clock, but has in fact shifted it to counteract the noises from the Conservative backbench.

Nick Clegg met his MPs to discuss the coalition.  This has not shifted the clock on the basis that - contrary to popular press reports and even the BBC putting spin on this story, the fact that the meeting has taken place is firstly normal, and secondly a good sign that the coalition is working.  The very fact that this has occurred is good news for the coalition.

Rumours that there will be a snap election to drop the Liberal Democrats are unfounded and have emanated from the misquoted words of Tim Montgomerie.  The reason that this is known is that several assurances by senior Conservatives and backbench Conservative MPs that this will not happen.  The Coalition deal was signed for five years.

Why polls are not counted at this stage
Despite the fact that YouGov is showing that the Conservatives would win an overall majority, we have taken into account the fact that most people will not be taking polling seriously.  Additionally, there is no money left in any party's budget to fight another election.

The YouGov dip in the polls for the Liberal Democrats has also not changed the clock on the reasons listed above.  It has also not made any difference to the clock because if the coalition were to be brought down and an election were called, the Liberal Democrats would be wiped out.  This will be known by senior Lib Dems.  On the same basis, no other changes have happened to bring the clock closer to midnight since Nick Clegg's announcement that there will be a 2/3 dissolution rule, further cementing the coalition.

Wednesday 30th June

The time is 20 minutes to midnight on Wednesday 30th June.

The way this time has been calculated is based on a number of factors.  This includes the VAT rise which would have rumbled some left-wing Liberal Democrats.  The reason it is not at 19 to midnight is that the two rebels - namely Mike Hancock and Bob Russell - are backbench MPs in the coalition.  We also anticipate that these individuals campaigned personally against a VAT rise and so are accountable to their constituents.  Nonetheless, as there was not complete compliance it has affected the clock by half a minute.

There has also been unrest within the grassroots of both parties, alongside statements being made by James Forsyth, seen here.  Whilst we disagree with their relevance somewhat, it suggests that those with influence are piling on the pressure on David Cameron to become more right-wing.  This has affected the clock by a further half a minute, as there are many more sites sourcing this - including Conservative Home.

Today, we have noticed that the Liberal Democrats have received a concession on their prison policy.  This has affected the clock positively by one minute, as it will be calming some Liberal Democrats who were being affected by Labour's attacks on them 'selling out'.

Therefore, the clock is at its default position as the three above points have cancelled the others out.

We have deliberately not included any opinion polls as we do not believe that their loaded questions are of relevance.