Wednesday 30th June

The time is 20 minutes to midnight on Wednesday 30th June.

The way this time has been calculated is based on a number of factors.  This includes the VAT rise which would have rumbled some left-wing Liberal Democrats.  The reason it is not at 19 to midnight is that the two rebels - namely Mike Hancock and Bob Russell - are backbench MPs in the coalition.  We also anticipate that these individuals campaigned personally against a VAT rise and so are accountable to their constituents.  Nonetheless, as there was not complete compliance it has affected the clock by half a minute.

There has also been unrest within the grassroots of both parties, alongside statements being made by James Forsyth, seen here.  Whilst we disagree with their relevance somewhat, it suggests that those with influence are piling on the pressure on David Cameron to become more right-wing.  This has affected the clock by a further half a minute, as there are many more sites sourcing this - including Conservative Home.

Today, we have noticed that the Liberal Democrats have received a concession on their prison policy.  This has affected the clock positively by one minute, as it will be calming some Liberal Democrats who were being affected by Labour's attacks on them 'selling out'.

Therefore, the clock is at its default position as the three above points have cancelled the others out.

We have deliberately not included any opinion polls as we do not believe that their loaded questions are of relevance.